March 23, 2011
During the first weekend (March 17-20,
2011) of the men’s NCAA basketball tournament, forty-eight games were played among the sixty-four original teams (not
counting the three play-in games).
In trying to predict the winner of each
of the forty-eight games, I used a trend chart (with a 5-period moving average) of the points scored (win or lose) by each
of the sixty-four teams during the regular season and their conference tournament, if they had one. (I did not include the March 17-18 game scores into the March 19-20 projections.)
The projected winner was selected in only
29 of the 48 games (60.4%).
In the forty-eight games, 3153 points were
scored in the first half (3153/96=32.84 average per team) and 3343 points were scored in the second half (3343/96=34.83 average
per team). In the two overtime games, 14 points were scored in the first overtime
and 13 points were scored in the second overtime.
In the east regional, 847 points were scored
in the first half (847/24=35.29 average per team) and 843 points were scored in the second half (843/24=35.12 average per
team).
In the southeast regional, 777 points were
scored in the first half (777/24=32.38 average per team) and 888 points were scored in the second half (888/24=37.00 average
per team).
In the southwest regional, 731 points were
scored in the first half (731/24=30.45 average per team) and 800 points were scored in the second half (800/24=33.33 average
per team).
In the west regional, 798 points were scored
in the first half (798/24=33.25 average per team) and 812 points were scored in the second half (812/24=33.83 average per
team).
Only in the east regional were more points
scored in the first half than the second half (847 to 843).
Eight locations hosted the tournament games
on March 17-20. Six games were played at each location with twelve team scores.
Charlotte N.C. led in total points scored
in both the first half and second half.
Here are the points scored in the first
half, second half, first overtime, second overtime, and total points.
(charlotte, nc)
433 454
887
(chicago, il)
353 415
768
(cleveland, oh)
386 403
789
(denver, co)
404 420
824
(tampa, fl)
417 415
832
(tucson, az)
371 391
14 13 789
(tulsa,
ok)
418 431
849
(wash,
dc)
371 414
785
Of the sixteen remaining teams, only eight
(Florida, Connecticut, Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia Commonwealth, and Florida State) were the calculated projected
winners in both games.
Brigham Young, Wisconsin and Richmond were
not projected to win either of their first two games.
The projected scores and winners of the
games on March 25 and 26 are listed below.
Proj score
Mar 25-26
seed
3 brigham young
projected winner neither round
75
seed
2 florida
projected
winner both rounds
76
seed
8 butler
projected
winner second round 66
seed
4 wisconsin
projected
winner neither round 56
seed
3 connecticut
projected
winner both rounds
79
seed
2 san diego
state
projected
winner first round
72
seed
5 arizona
projected
winner both rounds
76
seed
1 duke
projected
winner both rounds
76
seed
11 marquette
projected
winner first round
67
seed
2 north carolina
projected winner second round
73
seed
4 kentucky
projected
winner both rounds
71
seed
1 ohio state
projected
winner second round 76
seed
12 richmond
projected
winner neither round 64
seed
1 kansas
projected
winner both rounds
74
seed
11 virginia
commonwealth projected
winner both rounds
67
seed
10 florida
state
projected
winner both rounds
64
Submitted by:
George Sarkisian
Senior Research Quality Analyst
Farmington Hills, Michigan 48334
Tel: 248-626-9137
Email: sarkisiangeorge@yahoo.com
www.GeorgeSarkisian.com
www.GradeAndComment.com