George Sarkisian-Projected winners March 24-25, 2011 NCAA men's basketball tournament.

March 23, 2011

During the first weekend (March 17-20, 2011) of the men’s NCAA basketball tournament, forty-eight games were played among the sixty-four original teams (not counting the three play-in games).

In trying to predict the winner of each of the forty-eight games, I used a trend chart (with a 5-period moving average) of the points scored (win or lose) by each of the sixty-four teams during the regular season and their conference tournament, if they had one. (I did not include the March 17-18 game scores into the March 19-20 projections.)

The projected winner was selected in only 29 of the 48 games (60.4%).

In the forty-eight games, 3153 points were scored in the first half (3153/96=32.84 average per team) and 3343 points were scored in the second half (3343/96=34.83 average per team). In the two overtime games, 14 points were scored in the first overtime and 13 points were scored in the second overtime.

In the east regional, 847 points were scored in the first half (847/24=35.29 average per team) and 843 points were scored in the second half (843/24=35.12 average per team).

In the southeast regional, 777 points were scored in the first half (777/24=32.38 average per team) and 888 points were scored in the second half (888/24=37.00 average per team).

In the southwest regional, 731 points were scored in the first half (731/24=30.45 average per team) and 800 points were scored in the second half (800/24=33.33 average per team).

In the west regional, 798 points were scored in the first half (798/24=33.25 average per team) and 812 points were scored in the second half (812/24=33.83 average per team).

Only in the east regional were more points scored in the first half than the second half (847 to 843).

Eight locations hosted the tournament games on March 17-20. Six games were played at each location with twelve team scores.

Charlotte N.C. led in total points scored in both the first half and second half.

Here are the points scored in the first half, second half, first overtime, second overtime, and total points.

(charlotte, nc) 433 454 887

(chicago, il) 353 415 768

(cleveland, oh) 386 403 789

(denver, co) 404 420 824

(tampa, fl) 417 415 832

(tucson, az) 371 391 14 13 789

(tulsa, ok) 418 431 849

(wash, dc) 371 414 785

Of the sixteen remaining teams, only eight (Florida, Connecticut, Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Virginia Commonwealth, and Florida State) were the calculated projected winners in both games.

Brigham Young, Wisconsin and Richmond were not projected to win either of their first two games.

The projected scores and winners of the games on March 25 and 26 are listed below.

Proj score Mar 25-26

seed 3 brigham young projected winner neither round 75

seed 2 florida projected winner both rounds 76

seed 8 butler projected winner second round 66

seed 4 wisconsin projected winner neither round 56

seed 3 connecticut projected winner both rounds 79

seed 2 san diego state projected winner first round 72

seed 5 arizona projected winner both rounds 76

seed 1 duke projected winner both rounds 76

seed 11 marquette projected winner first round 67

seed 2 north carolina projected winner second round 73

seed 4 kentucky projected winner both rounds 71

seed 1 ohio state projected winner second round 76

seed 12 richmond projected winner neither round 64

seed 1 kansas projected winner both rounds 74

seed 11 virginia commonwealth projected winner both rounds 67

seed 10 florida state projected winner both rounds 64

Submitted by:

George Sarkisian

Senior Research Quality Analyst

Farmington Hills, Michigan 48334

Tel: 248-626-9137

Email: sarkisiangeorge@yahoo.com